How To Plan and Strategize To Use Amara’s Law and Kurzweil’s Law Of Accelerating Return To Our Advantage To Cancel Out Hofstadter’s Law and Murphy’s Law Effects

Originally I had wanted to give this post a different name entirely, “Why Height Increasing Technology Is Two Decades Too Early”- This was the original working title for this post. I wanted to through some key phrases in so that the readers may be more aware of what is coming in their future.

Here is the main point of this post: I believe that what we are trying to do, we are at least 20 years too early. The technology is just not there yet. However, that doesn’t stop us from going through the current data, and studies to write a complete guide for the next generation of researchers.

Before me and Tyler, there was Hakker and Sky. They failed because they were missing crucial information. They didn’t know what they didn’t know. They weren’t even aware of what they were ignorant about. The information we are lacking, is not here yet, or at least not revealed to the general public. However, there is something good that is coming. That is accelerated change in terms of scientific breakthroughs.

These days, things are changing so fast but that could be a good thing. It might be horrible for our current career prospects since it feels like we need to do more and more these days to even hold down a steady job and get our bi-monthly deposit into our bank account. However, if we can fully accept that overall, in the long run as long as we don’t kill ourselves through destroying the earth and the ecosystem, and barring any horrible natural catastrophe, where we will be in 40-50 years will be light years better. The same thing can be said about biotech innovation and the amazing breakthroughs happening everyday in labs around the world.

The fact is that height increase technology (or more specifically, cartilage regeneration and transdifferentiation technology) is probably at least 20 years too early of where we wish it could be – My guess is that it will become possible in 3 decades before we reach the next phase in the natural progression.

What Sky and Hakker tried to do, they were too early, and got the timing of the technology wrong. That is why I plan to play this game for the long term. Instead of putting effort into this endeavor for just 1-2 years, I am planning on focusing on this effort for at least 10 years.

What we might be seeing happening across the world and in our every day lives with IT, and computers, and automatization of everything that can be digitalized, is the result of software. What has been traditionally just information can now all be derived from a software engineer who writes in computer language to create an algorithm. The same thing can not be done with biology. What is happening with computers and software is not happening with biology or genetics.

The problem with Biotech, the Biological Sciences, Chemical related, and Anything Related to Medicine, Pharmaceuticals, is because those types of sciences can not be completely fitted into just a data file on a computer. With the biological sciences you need to actually do real experiments, requiring a real lab with laboratory equipment.

Amara’s law says that one greatly overestimates what they can accomplish in 1 year and underestimates what they can do in 10 years.

Our cognitive biases which causes people to become overly optimistic makes us become bad forecasters of the future. We are almost blind to all the factors which will impeded on our progress. We forget to consider just how hard some things will take.  We make a prediction on how fast something takes to be finished, we never consider unknown problems that crop up (That is Murphy’s Law).

The result is that what we thought might be simple and quick takes at least 50% longer in time to work out than we ever anticipated, even when we account for mistakes and poor judgement. That is Hofstadter’s Law.

The way nature works is not linear, but exponential. Let’s first accept the idea that for the next few years, things are just going to go very slowly, VERY SLOWLY. We are not going to see that much traction, not for a long time. I think this is what some people call the Plateau in our research. We have hit a level which we can’t cross without some major initial capital funding into the project, to get lab equipment.

When we are looking at progress in a short time frame, say 2-5 years, progress may look slow, and linear, with 10-30% increases annually. The result is that scientists and data analysts think that in the future, the trend will stay in that growth pattern, when in fact, things almost never grow linearly. It is exponentially.

That is Kurweil’s Law of Accelerating Returns. We have not reached that inflection point yet, when thing really take off. I am betting that after 10-15 years, then things really start to take off for us.

That is the time when we finally start to see some real results, when all of our hard work starts to really pay off and we see not just returns, but massive returns.

So Amara’s Law + Kurzweils’s Law of Accelerating Return will be eventually, after maybe 10-15 years, finally manage to over come all the trappings involved with Murphy’s Law and Hostadter’s Law.